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The Longbottom Affair:

Oh, the walking dead are on the march.

Here’s another theory that ended up being hosed by DHs.

With an update.

Not that I had any real confidence in Rowling following through on this one in the first place, although she is the one who originally raised the issue that led to it. But then, deliberately raising issues that she never bothers to address is one of Rowling’s failings. Instead she took a left turn at the fork and ended up going nowhere near what I (or so far as I know, anyone else) had drafted out.

****

The promise that finding out that what Harry’s parents did was “important” is only one of the statements that Rowling dropped on us years ago and never followed up on.

Along about February of 2007 it finally penetrated that one of the possibilities for Book 7 was that the other shoe might finally drop regarding the Longbottoms.

And, no, I still didn’t believe in MemoryCharmed!Neville. But she had told us that the Lestranges and Barty Jr had been sent after Frank and Alice Longbottom. In fact she had posted it on her website, and she never rescinded that statement.

It couldn’t have been Voldemort who sent them. He was already gone by then.

We’d also been told that the Pensieve Four attacked the Longbottoms, trying to discover Lord Voldemort’s whereabouts.

Why should Bellatrix Lestrange have believed that the Longbottoms might know Lord Voldemort’s whereabouts?

Or, perhaps, as we were led to believe up until OotP, why should she think that Frank Longbottom might know Voldemort’s whereabouts.

It’s a question worth asking.

Of course, as usual, one doesn’t ask those sorts of questions until a possible answer seems to be hovering somewhere around the horizon.

****

But, back to early 2007:

At that point it was finally time to reflect that Bellatrix almost certainly knew about the Horcruxes. Or at least she knew about one of them. It’s turned out since that she’d been given custody of it, after all. For that matter, Reggie knew about one of them too. That kind of information may (or may not) have traveled in either direction. But the statement Bella made at her sentencing, now that we’d all got the proper context to interpret it, makes it more than likely that she was no more convinced that Voldemort was dead than Dumbledore was, and for much the same reason.

And until Rowling finished off the series and shut down such speculation, I wondered if there might be some goofy idea that if you can find one of the accursed things, you can call the owner to you. If that was the case, she’d have built him a new simulacrum in a New York minute, and he’d have been back in next to no time. (ETA: well it kind-of makes sense doesn’t it? Unfortunately I don’t think it really does work that way. And besides, Rowling didn’t think of that, or she wouldn’t have given Bellatrix the Cup for safekeeping. Why torture the Longbottoms when all you need to do is make a trip to your own vault at Gringotts? So much for that speculation.)

What I thought at the time — in connection with my theories about Reggie and the sea cave, in which I postulated that it had been Bellatrix who had been entrusted to hide the Locket in the sea cave — was that:

After the Dark Lord’s disappearance in 1981, Bellatrix got the somewhat loony idea (or maybe not so loony) that if she could get hold of the Horcrux, she could restore the Dark Lord.

To this end she makes another trip to the sea cave. The potion balks her efforts at retrieving the locket. But in the course of the attempt, she makes another (to her) horrible discovery.

The potion in the basin is not truly opaque. It is luminescent, and it is reflective. Highly reflective. Once she douses her own Lumos and allows her eyes to adjust to the darkness, the glow of the potion eventually illuminates what is in the basin.

And it is not the Slytherin Locket.

She has been duped. The Locket she placed in the basin was not the Locket she had boasted to Regulus that the Dark Lord had entrusted her to hide.

And Reggie was no longer around to be questioned.

And she can no longer get access to the House at #12. Walburga has made it inaccessible to her.

She is stymied.

****

She isn’t ready to give up. But she hasn’t very many avenues of enquiry left to pursue. By 1981 the Black family has dwindled alarmingly. But there are still a couple of avenues for her to explore. We do not know whether Ignatius and Lucretia Prewett (and Arcturus, who was probably living with them) had a nasty experience during this period. Ignatius’s two nephews were already dead at DE hands, so it is possible that Bellatrix was balked there as well, and did not have any expectations of being able to convince Lucretia or Arcturus that they needed to assist her. Old Auntie Cassiopeia is a member of her own branch of the family, and she may have supposed that the house at #12 would be just as inaccessible to her.

Which left only distant cousin Callidora Longbottom.

Yes, that’s right. Longbottom. Which might have given her some fresh ideas.

Callidora Longbottom née Black. Born 1915 (and, acto the tapestry sketch, still alive). This lady is quite possibly Frank Longbottom’s grandmother, if the sort of early marriages we’ve been shown from time to time in the series are characteristic. Neville’s Gran, the Augusta Longbottom whose Hogwarts career Minerva remembers so vividly would be her daughter-in-law.

Rowling does, after all, tell us that the Lestranges were sent after the Longbottoms.

She doesn’t tell us by whom.

She doesn’t tell us why they were sent after the Longbottoms specifically, either.

****

And now let’s ask the question that nobody had made an issue of yet.

Who, precisely, were the Longbottoms, back when they still knew their own names?

There was more than one reason for someone to have been a member of the Order of the Phoenix, you know:

1. You might have escaped the attentions of the DEs three times.

2. You might be a close associate of Albus Dumbledore.

Those categories aren’t mutually exclusive. While I can’t really see Hagrid or Mundungus Fletcher escaping the DEs 3 times, I don’t have any problem with the idea that, say, Alastor Moody, might have qualified on both counts. Maybe so did Frank and Alice Longbottom.

And Albus did sound particularly bitter when he eventually told Harry what became of the Longbottoms, didn’t he? And old Augusta is still one of Albus’s biggest fans, despite it all. And she is in tight with Griselda Marchbanks who is an even bigger fan. I really do begin to suspect that the Longbottom family and Albus Dumbledore may go back a long way socially and may have been even closer associated 15-20 years ago than anyone has ever bothered to inform Harry.

But that’s only a part of the equation.

Albus also tells us that he and Harry are the only two people who [ought to] know the full text of the Trelawney Prophecy.

I doubt the same limitation goes for knowing about the Horcruxes. For example; I was pretty sure that Snape knew about those, and knew exactly what kind of information he was inside the DEs organization to try to find. Rowling has since shut down that line of enquiry as well. And given us nothing much to replace it with.

But I was by then beginning to wonder whether Frank and Alice had also been in the know, and were following leads to them, once Snape reported that Voldemort was giving a few selected individual, high-ranking followers some sensitive missions.

Ultimately, I seem to have been wrong about that.

****

On the other hand, we also have no reason to suppose that the Longbottoms were not still on social terms with the Black family, even if their politics were not what Pollux Black’s branch of the family agreed with. The Longbottoms had been considered eligible marriage partners for the Black family’s daughters, after all.

And two of the younger Longbottoms are Aurors. Who can make Walburga open the door to them.

In fact, two of the younger Longbottoms are Aurors; who also have a perfect excuse to be rooting out Dark artifacts for Albus Dumbledore, who is known to be a friend of their family.

In fact, they are members of Dumbledore’s bloody Order.

This might have prompted Bellatrix to connect a few phantom dots. It is possible that since she knows that her Master suddenly decided to hide his Horcrux she may have leaped to the conclusion that he knew that someone was looking for it. Bellatrix, after all, did not know about the Prophecy. Or not then.

She might have known he had shown an interest in the Longbottoms around the same time he was interested in the Potters, however.

But it still wouldn’t have been Voldemort who sent the Lestranges and Barty Jr after Frank and Alice Longbottom. Like I say, he was already gone by then.

Over here where I am standing, in the land of Qui Bono?, I’m not convinced that Bellatrix connected those dots in quite that pattern all on her own. She may have had... encouragement.

From somebody who, ironically, hadn’t a clue about the Horcruxes. Even though he had also been given custody of one of them.

Although Lucius may have had some awareness of Voldemort having taken an earlier interest in the Longbottoms.

Yes, indeed. My vote for possible instigator at this point always goes to Lucius Malfoy.

Malfoy’s position was precarious enough already. He had escaped Azkaban on an Imperius defense, but Bellatrix was a security risk on two feet, and far too much of a loose canon to be permitted to run around at large, unimpeded. And there is no reason to believe that there was ever any love lost between Lucius and Bellatrix. I think they have always been rivals.

Besides, there was also that little matter of the Black family’s holdings.

****

By the opening of 1982; the year we are invited to assume that the attack on the Longbottoms took place; according to the revised tapestry dates, the only members of the Black family left alive and at liberty were some half a dozen members of the older generations, and Cygnus’s three daughters. The heir, Sirius was in Azkaban and he was not coming out alive. Indeed, one rarely survived all that long in Azkaban. The older generation would eventually all die off too, and the property would ultimately devolve upon the sisters.

And one of the sisters was already disowned, and out of the succession.

Leaving only (still childless) Bellatrix standing between all of the Black family holdings ultimately devolving upon Lucius’s own wife and infant son.

Lucius Malfoy wants the very best for his family.

He will do whatever it takes to get it.

Encouraging Bellatrix to go ahead and make a fool of herself is a doodle.

****

And, like I say. I still do not think that Neville is suffering from a botched memory charm. It’s not required. That’s a false lead.

Oh, Neville is absent-minded, yes. We’ve ample canon support of that. But none of the incidents of Neville’s absentmindedness are of a suspicious nature. And indeed, the worst trouble he ever got into from it was from knowing he was absent-minded, writing information down and leaving it on his own bedside table inside the dormatory. He could hardly have been expected to anticipate that Crookshanks would steal it and give it to Sirius Black. I mean, really, who would?

But the track record we’ve actually got is one of people not asking Neville the right questions. He knew the properties of gillyweed. He would have told Harry about gillyweed in an instant, if he’d been asked. Did Harry ask Neville about staying underwater for an hour? No. He didn’t.

Neville didn’t volunteer much information about himself, by that time. In fact, he had volunteered less and less information as the series progressed. But the boy is wizarding raised, with a large family from an older, and possibly more well-informed generation than Ron Weasley’s, and he has a grandmother who rants at the drop of a hat. He probably knows one hell of a lot of backstory, and could fill in quite a few blanks if anyone would bother to ask him.

If the pattern we already had was holding, he probably doesn’t even realize what he knows. But he does know it. And he knows he knows it and breaking memory charms isn’t required to get him to tell you about it. All that’s needed is to ask the right question.

And maybe someone ought to ask his Gran a few questions as well.

****

Well, that didn’t happen did it?

I’m still inclined to regard it as a missed opportunity, because it might have been a great deal more fun than the never-ending camping trip. But maybe someone will explore the possibility in a fanfic someday.

However, now, years down the track from the release of DHs, a question has been raised which actually proposes a possible answer to our recalcitrant question of why target the Longbottoms?

It doesn’t get us any closer on the question of who it was who “sent” the Lestranges after them, but it does at least raise a viable reason for why.

Who was it, after all, that told Albus about Tom’s Albanian connection?

Yet another Never-Asked-Question, eh?

And it needs to be asked.

Albus knew that Tom was there. But Albus was completely out of the loop regarding any association between Tom Riddle and the Albanian nation. The actual connection between them was the Ravenclaw diadem. Tom spent anything up to a decade in Albania looking for the ruddy diadem.

But Albus had no idea of that. He didn’t even know that one of the Horcruxes was the Ravenclaw diadem. Not a single bloody clue.

So, without that missing piece of context, what put Albus onto the story that Tom might be hiding out in Albania?

Well it certainly wasn’t anyone who was approaching the problem from the standpoint of hunting the Horcruxes, or Albus might have been a bit less clueless than he was. And I very much doubt that the Order or its members were in any position to come across such information, either. So that pretty much leaves either one of Albus’s other agents, or the Ministry.

Snape was at the school by then, and still in contact with at least some of the remaining DEs who escaped prosecution. But his main contact seems to have been Malfoy who not only knew nothing about the Horcruxes, but was by all indications the first DE in his family.

If one removes any awareness or consideration of the diadem from the equation the only hint one is left with is the fact that Tom spent several years abroad in his youth, in Albania, and that it was only upon his return that he started contacting his old school chums and putting together a terrorist organization.

So who knew that?

Well the 2nd-generation DEs all seem fairly unlikely candidates. Which leaves Bella’s husband and his contemporaries right out of it. The new recruits like Snape and possibly even Malfoy were in an even less knowledgeable position. The Lestrange brothers, and young Avery, and Evan Rosier, however might have at least heard a few stories from their fathers.

Except that I don’t think they did. I rather doubt that Tom was at all communicative about exactly where he had been and what he had been doing once he returned to Britain and started sending out lures to his old school friends. He might even have been at some pains to give the impression that he had merely been off on an extended version of a traditional “grand tour”.

So who does that leave?

How about the followers that he brought back to Britain with him?

There weren’t many of those. But there seem to have been one or two.

And, of course they knew nothing of why Tom had been knocking about in Albania. They only knew that he had been there, because that’s where they ran into him.

I think it might be interesting to run a check back through the records of the Albanian Ministry’s DMLE for the years of, say, around 1948–1963 or thereabouts. I suspect that you might turn up some incidents which would prove... suggestive.

And who is most likely to have been the ones with the authority to do that?

The British Ministry.

Which employed the Longbottoms.

Bingo.

****

Barty Crouch had accepted Karkaroff’s offer to make a plea bargain. And I think that once he was willing to talk, Igor found himself questioned and questioned again, and questioned yet a third time, or even more, regarding his entire association with the wizard formerly known as Lord Voldemort, before he was turned loose and let to shake the dust of Great Britain from his feet. And someone in Crouch’s Department would have probably been involved in the questioning, and someone else would have been set to verifying his testimony.

I think enough turned up in the investigation to indicate that, yes, Lord Voldemort probably did start his career back in Albania. There may be any number of nasty unsolved cases in the Albanian records.

It might not have telegraphed that Tom would necessarily have returned there, but it at least gave Albus some place to start looking.

And I really do think that his informant may have been Frank Longbottom.

Which it would be easy enough for someone who might have at least limited access to the DMLE’s records to verify. Like, oh just maybe, the Head of the Department’s son.

And Longbottom, unlike Karkaroff was still in Britain.